2011: The emergence of two party politics?

There is much talk going at the moment amongst the political class of coalitions, alliances and mergers. The general consensus seems to be that the election machine of the PDP will simply be unstoppable come 2011 and the only way that non-PDP politicians can have a say is by forming a coalition (or coalitions). The story bubbled earlier in the year as legislators debated whether to include a two-party amendment into the Electoral Reform Bill, on that occasion the idea was shot down, albeit after some political manoeuvring, but nonetheless it raised the profile of the grand coalition agenda. The idea was first floated by the ‘love-him-or-hate-him’ Godfather of Nigerian politics, General Babangida, in the ‘Third Regime’ and eventually lead to what was considered the freest and fairest elections ever held in Nigeria which was contested between the National Republican Convention and the Social Democratic Party ( Who won the election with candidate MKO Abiola).

As the elections have drawn nearer, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) are reported to be in talks over an alliance (but probably not a merger) with the All Nigerian People Party (ANPP) and their splinter party the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). In addition to all the politicians who are criss-crossing the carpet from one party to the other, Presidential aspirant Pat Utomi of the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP), the day after announcing his candidacy indicated on his Facebook page that he would be ‘going round Nigeria to build a coalition with ALL progressives’. The question is now why the sudden clamour for unity?

 

There are two scenarios here that though inter-related are best looked at separately. The first of which was that raised in May in the legislature, where The National Assembly sort to pass an amendment limiting the parties allowed to run to two. The argument being that a two-party system is a stable political system that has succeeded in polities all over the world (and indeed in Nigeria albeit briefly) and will have a number of beneficial consequences include reduced cost of elections, greater accountability and higher participation. As such it was advisable to have it in law. This move although apparently supported by many was opposed by PDP legislators, but is also opposed by a number of academics who contend that besides the problems of rigidity and restricted choice this may imply, the emergence of two-party politics in the US or Japan or for that matter anywhere in the world has never been induced by the passing of law or amendment of constitutions. These changes have always happened by evolution, with two parties emerging as dominant over time but with the existence of other parties not expressly outlawed. This is of course the second scenario for Nigeria, that parties will splinter and merge, grow and wither and two parties will emerge; one of which in all likelihood has already emerged, The PDP.

 

There is a degree of inevitability about as French sociologist Maurice Duverger outlined in what became known as his principle. Duverger’s law asserts that a plurality election system, like the one that exists in Nigeria, tends to encourage a two party system, as opposed to a system of proportional representation which tends to favour a multiparty system. The argument being that in a country like Nigeria, where each legislative seat (and the Presidency) is divided by a simple majority of votes casted by constituents, the party with the most seats is the majority (or gains the Presidency) and the second party is in minority (or is in opposition). In each individual seat there is no role for the party that comes third, and any party that consistently comes third across the seats will have no role at all on a national level. People will stop voting for them as they will begin to see it as a wasted vote and/or the party itself will seek to ally itself with one of the more successful parties. This model has been applied to analysis of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom and is widely accepted, however it is only a theory and it is the practice of politics that concerns Nigerians.

 

This would be a good time for the opposition parties to unite. The PDP is suffering a dip in support; people are dissatisfied after 12 years of the party in Government. The pressure for free and fair elections is overwhelming, this combined with the cheap publicity via modern technology means that the elections will be more open than in previous idea. The concept of a non-partisan coalition chimes with the electorate and the theme of change that the parties are planning to run on and cooperation might give them the financial muscle to challenge the PDP’s hegemony. In practice, amalgamation looks unlikely. Though the parties are currently in talks with the view to some sort of understanding, there are a number of issues in the way so much so that Alhaji Bafarawa (formerly of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), now of the ACN) has come out to dispel talk of an alliance as just that, talk.

 

“As a democrat and I believe ACN is a democratic party. Whoever that is taking our ticket must be our member. I am assuring you there is no way ACN will adopt a presidential candidature without recourse to democracy. There is no way merger will work"

 

 The CPC is a splinter of the ANPP and such is unlikely to enter any coalition with them, leaving the ACN to choose a suitor. The major problem hindering any agreement is that there is no real acknowledgement of who is the ‘second’ party and who is the ‘third’, in other words who will be senior and who will be junior partner. The CPC is a new party that although has considerable support particularly in the North, has no tangible political assets to bring to the table. The ANPP despite its state Governors and significant stake in the legislator has taken some political blows as a result of the defections that have plagued the party this year. The ACN would seem to be perched in the driving seat with the popular acclaim for Governor Fashola of Lagos and its recent court successes in the South-West, however they don’t appear to be able to put forward a heavy hitting presidential candidate and such seem to be very much playing second fiddle to the other parties. The latest gossip is that the coalition will be between the CPC and the ACN, with former head of state, General Buhari, being lined up as the presidential candidate with a running mate from the ACN, possibly former governer of Lagos State, Mr Tinubu.

 

If a deal is struck, there will be a number of losers including ACN aspirant, Mallam Ribadu, who seems to have been overlooked as well as Pat Utomi’s SDMP and a whole host of smaller parties who will have little or nothing to bring to the table. However, in this writer’s opinion a deal is not likely to be struck, Nigerian politicians are not well known for their cooperation or their selflessness. For progress to be made one or more parties will have to give up their claim to the presidency and accept a diminished role. The parties will have to choose a platform on which to run and that is proving a sticking point at the moment as all sides would want to preserve their political capital by running on their own party ticket. Then there is the question of what will happen in the likely situation that the PDP retains power, the PDP currently has 26 of the 36 gubernatorial seats while the other parties combined have only 10. What are the realistic prospects of any coalition continuing beyond the elections and forming a credible opposition? One can only speculate and on some level that is the problem in Nigeria, there is no power in opposition and so every election is winner takes all. Duverger’s theory doesn’t hold up for Nigeria because there is no second place, no shadow cabinet, in effect no opposition. Opposition that should be shadowing government activity, scrutinizing government agenda and formulating alternative policies simply doesn’t exist. It should act as check on the party in power and should fight to get the upper hand on its opponent by reflecting the will of the people. So this brings us back to the first scenario and perhaps instead of the National Assembly trying to legislate on a two party system, they should legislate on reform to the Assembly that will allow for or even require credible opposition and maybe this will bring about the evolution of a two-party system if it is indeed inevitable.

 

Enyinnaya Emmanuel Chukwueke

 

Green Label Project, Changing Nigeria Together

Inequality in Nigeria

Inequality in Nigeria is a thoroughly contentious problem. The difference between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ can be seen all too clearly, with the lavish lifestyles of a few juxtaposed amongst the squalor of the many. Inequality is closely related to the issue of poverty but the two issues should be looked at separately because ultimately the issue of inequality is not limited by poverty, inequality still exists in countries with low levels of absolute poverty. In fact the world economy as a whole shows high level of inequalities: low income countries account for 62% of the world’s population but only 6% of the world’s income. Inequality in Nigeria has three inter-related but distinct aspects, inequality of wealth, inequality of income and inequality of opportunity. It also takes at least three distinct dimensions: inequalities between urban and rural populations, between rich and poor, and between the genders. The gender issue is a serious and complex problem in itself and is part of a social phenomenon. Because it deserves a discussion in its own right so it will not be discussed here

Scope of Income Inequalities

Inequality is a very difficult concept to measure as it exists in many forms. The inequalities between the groups are further complicated by the inequalities within the groups and trying to treat the groups as homogenous masks the scale.

Data on wealth distribution in Nigeria is difficult to come by. This is partly because wealth and the sources of wealth raise deep political (and perhaps legal) questions. However, the fact that the self-professed richest black person on the planet is from the same nation where 54% of the population are living below the national poverty line, would suggest that there is a severely unequal distribution of wealth.

The Gini coefficient is a statistical measure of inequality which has been applied to national income distributions to measure income inequality in countries. It gives a 0 to a perfectly equal distribution and 1 to a perfectly unequal distribution. According to the CIA, Nigeria gets 43.7 (0.437) in 2003 on this scale, making it more unequal than Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania and Egypt to name but a few. This statistic while offering a snapshot of the situation in regards to income, doesn’t tell the whole story. There is also inequality of opportunity; while this is difficult to measure it exists in all facets of life. There is unequal access to education, to healthcare, to justice, to security, to capital and even to political representation. Some are able to live as full citizens while the majority are offered little by the state and are left to fend for themselves.

The causes of inequality

Inequality in Nigeria has multiple causes, it is undoubtedly possible to trace inequalities to pre-colonial societies: in the forms of social divisions, cast systems and domestic slavery, but the modern phenomenon has its roots in the colonial era. The urban –rural divide really became accentuated in this period as the extractive model of the colonial forces didn’t require them to thoroughly penetrate the hinterland. Commerce was centred round commercial and coastal areas and only the bare minimum of investment was made outside these areas. The system of indirect rule and the utilisation of local middlemen concentrated wealth (and ultimately power) in the hands of a few and thus entrenched the inequalities between rich and poor. The extractive economic model continued into the post-colonial era and was accelerated with the discovery of oil and the propagation of the oil sector. The concentration of amenities in urban areas continues. The structure of the economy is now such that most people (about 70%) are employed in the relatively unproductive agricultural sector, which accounts for only a third of national income.

There has also been a failure thus far on the part of government to institute redistributive policies. Part of the role of government is to ensure a level of equality in society. The most widely used systems of wealth redistribution are taxation, welfare and nationalization. The saga of state owned enterprises in Nigeria is a sad one; corruption and mismanagement have meant that nationalised industries instead of being redistributive have furthered society’s inequalities. The problem in Nigeria’s case has not been nationalization itself, but the way in which it has been done. When it comes to welfare in Nigeria there has been a mish-mash of government initiatives coupled with the work of religious, community and non-government organisations, however there remains no comprehensive welfare policy.

The Nigerian polity has consistently failed to develop a sustainable tax base within the nation. The government is over-reliant on oil revenue, with oil exports accounting for over 80% of Government revenue. Though there is an increasing awareness amongst State Governors of the importance of internally generated revenue (IGR), the failure to tax the average citizen and everyday businesses has countless ramifications both historically and for the future, but it is importance in the context of inequality. Revenue raised from taxation should be spent on providing the public goods and services such as education, healthcare etc that reduce the inequalities of opportunity that plague Nigeria. In addition to this a progressive tax system that tax higher earners more could also aid to balance inequality in all its forms. It is not enough to tax the population; the funds must then be used to improve the lot of the disadvantaged.

There are also more debateable things that may be at the root of the disparity in Nigeria. There is an argument to be made about the link between levels of democracy and levels of inequality, this makes intuitive sense and fits in with the facts as according to Freedom House’s ‘Freedom in the World Report 2010’, Nigeria is rated as ‘Partly Free’. There is also an increasingly popular argument that ethnic heterogeneity is causally related to inequality, again while the argument is contentious it does fit the facts of Nigeria which has over 250 distinct ethnic groups.

Finally, Inequalities of wealth and income perpetuate themselves and deepen inequalities of opportunity. The better off have better access to healthcare and education (both at home and abroad), they enjoy better job opportunities, easier access to financial markets, higher levels of justice and security, and more political access and participation. Through the process of wealth condensation, newly created wealth tends to concentrate in the possession of those who have the means to invest (the already wealthy). So without outside intervention, the market in an unequal society tends to worsen the problem of inequality.

The implications of Inequality

Firstly, inequality is undesirable in itself. Attached to the concept of true democracy is an egalitarian ideal and one of the duties of a democracy is to work towards this ideal. However, there are implications of high levels of inequality that pertain to the economic, political and social aspects of society.

The economic consequences are not entirely clear. There is a body of work that suggests that societal inequalities inspire greater innovation and ingenuity in the economy. On the other hand, the World institute for Development Economic Research argue that highly unequal societies (a Gini coefficient of 0.40 or greater) for a range of reasons s detrimental to economic growth. In a global context inequality amongst nations causes growth in better off countries at the expense of poorer countries.

From a political standpoint, the inequality of access to power is an important one. Politics in Nigeria is a rich man’s game, the system excludes representation of the less advantaged in the institutions of state. Less advantaged people also contribute less to political discourse and have little influence on political policy at all levels of government and even parties. The actual workings of power are the domain of an elite few who have the means to participate, this is at the root of bad governance and the demise of true democracy. The disparity of wealth means that the political class is able to manipulate the political process through legal and illegal means.

The greatest impact of inequality is on the social level. Inequality has its major effect on social cohesion. In unequal societies people are less likely to trust each other. This is a serious problem in a relative young country which has lived through a civil war, it means that economic problems are easily framed as regional, religious or ethnic problems. The term social capital is one often brandished around but is somewhat difficult to define; broadly speaking it is the value of the social networks of society. This value is evident in participation in public and communal organizations, engagement with public officials, adherence to legal and social duties and other forms of social participation. Inequality reduces social capital and as such has negative effects on everything from the effectiveness of education to the development of civil societies.

Inequality is also a cause of crime and this is of particular importance in Nigeria, with the problems of theft, armed robbery, internet scams and the plague of ‘area boys’ amongst others a constant concern amongst the citizenry. Inequality also opens the door for white collar crime. Those with the means are able to take advantage of those without as is evident in the continuing banking sector scandals. The low pay of many relative to a few fuels low level corruption, this manifests itself in a corrupt and inept civil service and security force which in turn results in poor delivery of public services. Such levels of corruption, for which Nigeria is famous worldwide, affect the country the economic performance of the country and the credibility of the political structure.

Inequality is a difficult topic to discuss, let alone to solve. The people in a position to talk about it and act on it are predominantly those that benefit most from the status quo. There therefore has to be a general national consensus that attacking the problem of inequality is fundamental to improving the current condition and the future prospects of Nigeria as a whole.

The List

Dear Sir,
I hope this reaches you in good health. My name is Enyinnaya Emmanuel Chukwueke. While I could provide a summary of my short life so far and why amongst the sea of people who must be vying for your attention I should be listened to, I don't feel its important or in fact necessary. What is important is that I am a young Nigerian and I am proud to be one and as your ambition is to lead our country my views (alongside those of every Nigerian) should matter immensely to you. With the 2011 elections around the corner and everyone in the nation filled with a cocktail of excitement and anxiety, the field is awash with numerous candidates each professing to have the best interest of Nigeria at heart. While each politicians boast of past achievements or clean records, I think what is far more important than the nature of the candidate is his or her plan for our country Nigeria. The election should not be decided on which person is preferred by more people, but rather by whose vision for Nigeria is shared by the most people. In this regard, most of the political discourse so far has been lacking. So it is with this in mind and with all due respect that I ask that you clarify your position on the issues facing Nigeria.
I am aware that the issues facing Nigeria are complex; they are often inter-related, over-lapping and deep rooted. However, I feel that the problems can be separated out into broadly speaking Political, Economic and Social ones. Within these broad categories there are a number of individual issues which I have outlined below. Although as of the time of writing there is no official date for the 2011 elections, I feel we can safely say it is at least 25 weeks away and as such I have devised a 26 instalment programme that will hopefully clarify your vision for Nigeria. I understand that you must be busy and as such expecting detailed analyses of the issues and detailed policy plans is perhaps unrealistic, but by not letting the people know where you stand you are really missing the opportunity to win over a nation that is no longer satisfied to vote along ethnic, religious or patronage lines. Nigerians want substance and to rescue the nation and restore it to its rightful place at the forefront of Africa, we need a plan.
1) ​Political
a) Corruption and Patronage
b) The Niger-Delta
c) Ethnicity and Nationalism
d) Electoral reliability
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​e) The constitution and constitutional reform
f) The party system and political participation

2) ​Economic
i​) ​​Macroeconomic Issues​​​​​​
a​) Full employment
b) Price Stability
c)​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Economic Growth
d) Balance of Payments
ii) ​Microeconomic Issues​​​​​
a) Redistributing income and wealth
b) Reducing regional disparity
c) Correcting market failures
d) Food security​

3) ​Social
a) Poverty​​​​​​​
b)​ Education
c) Healthcare
d) Corruption
e)​​​​​​​​​​ Crime and Justice
f) Ethnic/religious violence
g) Technological Gap
h) Welfare and social security
i) Gender equality
j) Human Rights
4) Priority
Amongst all these issues, what is the priority for the next government of Nigeria?
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
So what do I want from you? Right now, I would simply ask you to look at the list and remove from it any issues you think are not pertinent or not within the remit of government and add to it any issues that you feel are but are not on the list. After this, each week I will expound the issue in question as I see it and ask for your thoughts in each case and possible solutions. While I really do hope you take me seriously and that you do respond, I will continue to write to you each week even if you do not. I thank you for your time and sincerely wish you all the best. This letter is open and as such I welcome the thoughts and contributions of my fellow Nigerians
Humbly yours,
Enyinnaya Emmanuel Chukwueke